Thanksgiving, mercifully, remains the one traditional holiday of the year where you’re not expected to give gifts. It used to be you couldn’t shop for them, either, even if it was just for one day.
Then, about 20 years ago, the day following Thanksgiving began to be known as Black Friday. We’re now familiar with the sight of shoppers, suffering cabin fever after a whole day cooped up with their families, out on a crazed shopping spree that has come to mark the official opening of Holiday Season for retail, and the peak season delivery demands that come with it. Around 30 percent of annual retail sales occur between Black Friday and Christmas. (In case you don’t know, the “black” refers to it being considered the day of the year the average retailer moves from loss – traditionally marked in ledgers in red – into the black ink of profit.)
About ten years ago, some stores gained publicity by opening at midnight on Thanksgiving Night/Black Friday morning, raising more than a few eyebrows. But now the convenience offered by ecommerce has blown all sense of restraint out of the water, and “Black Friday” goes on for a week or more. That means peak season delivery schedules must expand and flex accordingly.
Not only are special offers related to this shopping jamboree available several days either side of Friday from ecommerce vendors; physical bricks-and-mortar stores are opening on actual Thanksgiving. JC Penney opens 2pm Thursday (and you can shop the sale all day online). Best Buy, Macy’s and Target open at 5pm and stay open until the wee small hours. Kohl’s will stay open continuously from 5pm Thanksgiving, right through the night. (By contrast, Lowe’s, Costco, Nordstrom and Bed Bath & Beyond are staying closed Thursday.) Online Black Friday deals and coupons are typically available several days in advance – Dell computers launched a Black Friday promotion last Tuesday, a full ten days in advance of the big day.
Aside from what all this might mean for the traditional turkey family feast, the implications for delivery planning are complex. Yes, overall holiday season spending continues to rise, post-2009. But the traditional physical crush into bricks-and-mortar stores for a single, giddy day has abated. In 2017, the number of people visiting stores on Black Friday and Thanksgiving declined 4 percent from its peak in 2016, according to a company that analyzed in-store videos to count the shoppers.
Some of that is because stores are extending the time-scope of their sales. But of course there’s also the effect of ecommerce. In 2017, online Black Friday-related sales rose 18 percent, according to Adobe Systems Inc., and hit a record of $7.9 billion.
In other words, delivery locations, quantities and frequency are all likely to change at unpredictable, breakneck speed over the next six weeks, and peak season delivery planning needs to be more flexible than ever. Automated route planning and scheduling can really deliver a Black Friday bargain to fleet managers struggling to keep up.
Not only can route planning and scheduling software save 10-30 percent on delivery costs overall, year-round, it is an essential tool for any business serving retailers with ever-shifting peak season delivery needs.
Using software from Paragon Software Systems, companies that supply retailers can model different “what-if” scenarios to optimize holiday delivery routes and schedules. You can use the software to analyze a typical week of delivery routes and then run comparisons to test alternative options to better suit the fluctuating demand. You can easily adjust factors such as truck sizes, driver shifts, DC locations or time window options to quickly find out which models will give the best transportation cost savings while allowing you to hit all of your delivery performance targets in full and on time.
Routing and scheduling software also helps determine the optimal number of drivers and vehicles required, number of drivers per shift, fleet size and fleet mix needed during these frantic weeks. For each scenario, the software calculates optimized routes and schedules, and outputs the total fleet resources, miles, drivers’ hours, CO2 emissions and transportation costs so that retailers can make cost-based decisions that keep them ahead of the game, especially when it comes to customer satisfaction.
That way, you stand a better chance of sitting down to your turkey, turducken or tofurkey this Thanksgiving with an easeful mind. Enjoy!
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